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  • 0 Vericrest Insights - January 2025

    Happy New Year! Not sure about you, but I’ll still be writing 2024 until at least the middle of February. And speaking of 2024, if inflation was the word investors feared in 2023, AI was the word they couldn’t get enough of in ’24, as the hype for generative AI surged, reached fever pitch, and then got a bit louder. The major beneficiary was, of course, big tech. You’d be hard-pressed to find many people in America who don’t interact with Meta’s social media platforms, Apple’s phones, Tesla’s cars, Google’s search engine, Microsoft’s software, anything with an Nvidia or Broadcom chip in it, or Amazon’s e-commerce operation on a regular basis. Collectively, they’ve gained $6.2 trillion in value this year, representing 12% of the S&P 500’s revenue, 26% of its profit, and 34% of its weighting. Overall, the S&P's annual gain roughly matches 2023's performance, logging the highest consecutive back-to-back annual gain in nearly 30 years. We ended the year with data showing improved U.S. economic activity in December as service businesses grew more confident about the incoming administration. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% in December, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%, a two-year low. Officials project just two rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing caution. Let’s look at some interesting factoids from the year: Apple has revealed 2024’s most downloaded apps — and Chinese e-commerce site Temu has topped the list for the second year in a row, edging out TikTok, Threads, and ChatGPT. Time Magazine has published it’s annual “Best Inventions” list for 2024. Some real Star Trek-type stuff….fascinating….especially if you’re an early adopter of technology. In October, Disneyland hiked prices for its highest-demand days, with the most expensive daily ticket at Disney’s California park more than doubling over the past decade — yet customers remain undeterred. Disney’s Experiences division raked in $26 billion in revenue for the first three quarters of the year, 7% higher than over the same period in 2023. (A single-day single-park ticket goes for anywhere between $165 - $400!)   Looking Ahead to 2025 The U.S. economy faces a new political landscape and monetary policy shift toward rate cuts. Balancing inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with a strong labor market will be the Fed's challenge. Fed Chair Powell stressed a cautious approach to avoid spurring inflation or harming employment. The major macro themes: -          The U.S. economy is expected to continue to produce moderate growth with further inflation progress on a “bumpy” path. -          The Fed has re-pivoted monetary policy to a more cautious rate cut path with a pause likely coming to begin the new year. -          Treasury yields have returned to more normal historical levels; we look for yields to remain elevated in the months ahead. -          We are also of the view that the new administration will be characterized by dollar strength and wider bull market participation.   What impact will all this have on the U.S. consumer? Savers: Savings yields remain favorable. One-year CD rates rose from 4.25% in January 2024 to 4.59% in December, with many savings accounts outpacing inflation (currently 2.7%). Borrowers: Borrowing costs are still historically high, with credit card APRs averaging over 20%. Mortgage rates remain elevated, complicating homebuying despite slight rate drops since September. Refinancing opportunities exist but offer limited savings. Investors: The S&P 500 had a strong 2024, supported by economic resilience and post-election optimism. Retirement accounts and household net worth are at record highs.   2025 Planning A few updates that I’d like to share with you as we start the new year. For 2025, the annual contribution limit for 401(k), 403(b), 457 plan, and Thrift Savings Plan plans has been increased to $23,500. The catch-up contribution limit that generally applies for employees aged 50 and over who participate in most plans remains at an additional $7,500 for 2025. Under a change made in SECURE 2.0, a higher catch-up contribution limit applies for employees aged 60, 61, 62 and 63 who participate in these plans: this higher catch-up contribution limit is $11,250 instead of $7,500. The limit on annual contributions to an IRA remains $7,000, with the income tax deductibility based on earnings. The IRA catch‑up contribution limit for individuals aged 50 and over was amended under the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 (SECURE 2.0) to include an annual cost‑of‑living adjustment but remains $1,000 for 2025.   Portfolio Adjustments (sorry - client access only!)   Don’t Read the Headlines That’s right. Don’t read them. Because they are there to sell newspapers and online clicks. Sure, being that the market has had quite a run up the previous two years, we are more likely for a pullback to happen at some point. But some of these headlines are nothing more than doomsday and negativity. Here is a recent sample: “This hasn’t happened to U.S. stocks in more than 20 years — here’s why investors should be concerned.” “Is the stock market crashing?” “What’s going on with the stock market? Should you panic?” No – you shouldn’t panic. In fact, people with an optimistic mindset are associated with various positive health indicators, particularly cardiovascular, but also pulmonary, metabolic, and immunologic. They have a lower incidence of age-related illnesses and reduced mortality levels. In fact, according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, “Optimists tend to live on average 11 to 15 percent longer than pessimists and have an excellent chance of achieving exceptional longevity.” And who doesn’t want all that??!?! Wishing you and your families a healthy and prosperous 2025!

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    0 How to find a good financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA

    As a national wealth management firm, we serve clients from our local Philadelphia, PA area as well as across the country. In this blog we’ll provide you with all the information needed to make a smart decision about how to find a good financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA, from what questions to ask to what resources to consult with, and more. Should you chose a local or national financial advisor? There’s no easy answer to the question of whether it makes sense to work with someone local, a financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA or its surrounding areas, or not. Let’s look at the pros and cons.Here are the benefits of working with a local financial professional: You can meet in person. You’ll be able to sit across the table from them and make eye contact. For some people, the physical interaction is important. If they are involved with the community, the wealth manager may be familiar with local goings on, people, and resources that you may find useful. You may feel more comfortable working with someone you’ve met. They may be intimately familiar with certain aspects of local finance, such as location specific tax rates or legal requirements, that may be relevant to you. On the flip side, it may not be as beneficial for the following reasons. If you are relocating in the future (or are likely to), having a person geographically close to you at this particular point wouldn’t make a difference in the long term. By restricting your search to only local candidates, you may be ruling out advisors who are more skilled and knowledgeable, or who are a better fit for your personal situation. Technologies such as Zoom, DocuSign, etc., have made virtual relationships much easier. Firms who embrace technology and are able to accommodate out of area clients may be more efficient overall and deliver a higher quality experience. These are all factors to consider. At the end of the day, what matters most is the trust you have in the advisor, who they are, and how they conduct their business. We have worked with clients in our local area as well as across the country, and we have found that what matters most to our clients Is getting the right fit. Wealth management is a person-to-person business, and the interpersonal dynamics have to make sense, both in terms of your bond with the advisor to your level of comfort with the team that supports you.So, let’s talk about that for a moment. How do you make sure you’re getting high quality financial advice. What common characteristics do the best financial advisors share? There are so many different kinds of financial advising firms to pick from. What makes a good one? We see three main tenets that separate the best investment advisors, financial planners, and wealth managers from the rest. #1 Low costHigher cost does not necessarily ensure higher quality.Research shows that keeping advisory fees to a minimum improves investment performance. High management fees and related expenses can reduce creation of wealth in the long term.An advisor’s fees should be kept to a fair and reasonable level. They may not seem like a big deal, but they add up. We’ve gone into detail about the impact of advisory fees on our website. #2 Fee-onlyFee-only advisors have chosen to do business this way because it makes the client’s success the only objective. Fee-only advice is objective and conflicts are minimized.We are a fee-only advisor. We receive no compensation other than from our clients. We are not paid by commissions, revenue-sharing, or hidden fees.Fee-only advisors differ from fee-based advisors in several ways, the most important being that fee-based advisors are allowed to wear two hats. Fee-based advisors can accept fees in certain situations, and in others they can be paid by commissions. It’s important to know if you are dealing with a fee-based advisor because your best interests may not come first in situations where they are bound by lower standard of care – which we’ll discuss in the next section. #3 FiduciaryOnly a small portion of financial advisors uphold the fiduciary standard of care.Fiduciary advisors: Must disclose all conflicts prior to the engagement Must act in the client’s best interest at all times, even if it is a disadvantage to them financially Must fully disclose how they are paid Must maintain a Code of Ethics Most advisors follow suitability, which is the lower standard of care. No requirement to disclose conflicts of interest Are not mandated to act in the client’s best interest Must only ensure that an investment is suitable when recommended This is a critical distinction. We recommend that if you want to work with one of the best financial advisors, you ask all candidates if they follow the fiduciary or suitability standard of care. Resources to use to find a financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA There are several ways to find a financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA. Most people consult with their networks and ask for recommendations. There are also social media networks such as LinkedIn and Facebook where financial advisors post content.If you are looking for a fee-only advisors, which we think is the best type of advisor to have handling your wealth, here are resources that may be of help.Garrett Planning networkThis website houses the names of fee-only advisors. You can filter by services and specialties. There are also several articles on the site written by financial advisors.Fee-only networkThis is useful if you are focused on a particular geography and wanted to find a financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA. You can search this directly by zip code or address. You can even find one in your neighborhood, should you so desire.NAPFAThis is a great tool if you are looking for a financial planner. The National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, or NAPFA, has a planner search tool as well as many other educational resources that may be helpful. Questions to ask a financial advisor When you meet with a financial advisor, it’s important to make sure you get the information you need (instead of what they want you to know).Here are some questions to ask, whether you are looking for a financial advisor in Philadelphia, PA or any location in the United States. Get responses in writing and/or record the session, if possible. What are your educational credentials/licenses? What standard of care do you follow, and what percentage of the time are you required to follow it? How are you paid: fee only, commission only, or fees and commissions? Do you engage in revenue-sharing, or compensated for making referrals? Can I have a list of all of the fees I will pay for your services? Are you affiliated with any bank, brokerage firm, or insurance company? Can I have a copy of your Form CRS? Do you have any regulatory disclosures? (check this with their Form CRS and ADV to make sure they’re telling the truth) Who will be my day-to-day contact and what is their experience level? How many clients do you work with, what are their defining characteristics, and what types of services do you typically provide to them? Can I have a copy of your business continuity plan? Who custodies the assets? (you want to see an independent, third party here) As you can see, there is quite a bit of information to gather. Any advisor who refuses to provide this information or makes insufficient effort should be eliminated entirely from consideration. Conclusion We are a financial advisor in the Philadelphia, PA area, but we work with clients across the country. We provide fee-only, objective advice to our clients. If you would like to discuss a possible relationship, contact us.