Data are in… and May didn’t disappoint.

 

The S&P 500 closed May up 6.2%, its best month since November 2023—and the strongest May showing since 1990. Cue the shoulder shrug from the Fed, but markets are clearly saying something.

 

The big surprise last week? A stunning collapse in the trade deficit, pointing to a possible 4% GDP growth rate in Q2—nearly double the 2% consensus. Economists everywhere quietly updated their forecasts and pretended that was the plan all along.

 

Geopolitical risks haven’t gone anywhere. China’s potential backtracking on its recent Geneva promises reignited Trump’s rhetoric and rattled markets just enough to notice. While current tariff levels are baked in, any escalation would be a downside risk. With potential Supreme Court involvement looming over executive tariff authority, this could be less about economics and more about constitutional law. Fun! But as always, markets care more about earnings and economic growth than about political grandstanding.

 

On the labor front, jobless claims are steady in the 220,000 range—not too hot, not too cold. Inflation is trending lower, though Walmart’s CEO could’ve chosen his words more wisely before casually tossing “higher prices” out there.

 

Home prices are up nearly 20% since 2021. Redfin reports a median sale price of $394,000 in late May, with monthly mortgage payments averaging $2,860—just $25 shy of a record high. Yet sellers now outnumber buyers by 33.7%, shifting the power dynamic. Translation: it might finally be okay to ask for the washer and dryer. Still, many would-be buyers are sidelined by high prices, economic uncertainty, and a strong attachment to their sub-3% mortgage rates.

 

Speaking of uncertainty, The Fed remains on hold. With the 10-Year yield hovering in the 4.50%-4.75% range, we are not yet at levels that signal true stress from a deficit standpoint. And the inflation picture continues to improve. The PCE deflator came in at or slightly below expectations – yet another argument for eventual easing, though the Fed seems content to wait it out.

 

All in, the market’s resilience—despite tariffs, politics, and scattered CEO gaffes—reflects investor optimism in the fundamentals: solid consumer spending, strong productivity, and stabilizing inflation. If this is what “uncertainty” looks like, investors seem pretty comfortable with it.

 

 

The Age-Wealth Multiplier

Here’s why time in the market matters more than timing the market.

 

The age-wealth multiplier is the factor by which a dollar invested at a certain age grows by retirement, assuming a consistent annual rate of return. Put another way, it's how many times your money multiplies from the time you first invest it until retirement (assuming age 65).

 

Here is how the value of $1 compounds by age 65 (assuming a 10% annual rate of return):

• Invest at age 20, and every $1 grows to $72.89
• Wait until 30, and it only grows to $28.10
• Wait until 40, and it shrinks to $10.83
• By age 50, that same dollar only becomes $4.18

 

Another way of looking at it: To match the future value of $1,000 invested at age 20 (which would grow to $72,890), here’s how much you’d need to invest at later ages:

• Age 30: $2,593.74
• Age 40: $6,727.50
• Age 50: $17,449.40

 

We know that we can’t control investment returns, but we can control when we start investing—and starting sooner makes all the difference. We’re not talking Warren Buffett levels of investing here—just something. Even if it’s 1% of your salary into a 401(k) or $50 a month into a Roth IRA, those small, consistent decisions compound in a powerful way over time.

 

No matter the age of the investor I hear the same phrase time and again: “I wish I had started sooner.” That always resonates.

 

And while we can’t turn back the clock, we can absolutely take action now—or help someone else do the same. This might not be relevant for you personally—but it could be for a child or grandchild who’s just starting out. If so, share this with them. One conversation could make a lifetime of difference.

 

 

For Further Reading

 

The Unexpected Reason Home Prices Could Drop Soon

https://money.com/home-prices-could-drop-high-rates-low-demand/

 

Americans believe real estate, gold are the best long-term investments. They’re wrong, advisors say

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/08/real-estate-and-gold-vs-stocks-best-long-term-investment.html

 

Can I stop my Social Security benefits if I decide to take early retirement?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-i-stop-my-social-security-benefits-if-i-decide-to-take-early-retirement-9f10e805?st=D8sHaA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

Why This Stock Market Makes So Many of Us Want to Scream
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/why-this-stock-market-makes-so-many-of-us-want-to-scream-fffd75d4?st=YLkg8Q&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink