Vericrest Insights

The February economic data delivered exactly what markets needed — not perfection, just confirmation. Inflation continues to cool, and the labor market remains intact. CPI came in softer than expected, with rental components finally reflecting the long-awaited deceleration in housing costs. Real weekly earnings are up roughly 1.9% year over year — the strongest improvement … Read more

February arrives with a familiar feeling – much like Groundhog Day. Investors are watching the same themes resurface: inflation that refuses to fully retreat, interest rates paused but not yet falling, and markets reacting quickly to headlines while waiting for clarity that never quite arrives. Like the movie, it can feel repetitive, but the lesson … Read more

A new year brings fresh perspective, but it also offers a useful pause to reflect on what we’ve learned, what’s changed, and what still holds true. Our monthly newsletter is intended to provide context, not noise, and to help frame recent market developments within a longer-term view. If nothing else, I hope it serves as … Read more

This past month may have answered a few questions—but it raised plenty more. The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate by another quarter point to a range of 3.75%–4%. Chair Jerome Powell joined the 10–2 majority on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but offered no clear guidance for the next decision in December. Complicating … Read more

The fourth quarter begins with the Fed having restarted its rate cut cycle in the face of moderating economic activity, with uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy continuing to complicate the outlook. Recent labor market data have weakened meaningfully, with downward revisions to job growth and a modest rise in unemployment signaling softer conditions. Federal … Read more

I hope you and your families had a nice Labor Day!  (In case you’re interested, here is an article from the Department of Labor on the history of the holiday.) The story this month is the Fed and if their September meeting will end in an interest rate change. The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation rate, the … Read more

At its July meeting this week, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25%-4.5%, a level held since December 2024. This decision comes despite intense pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts. While the majority of the FOMC voted for the hold, … Read more

Global markets entered the second quarter on unstable footing, as the U.S. announced new tariffs on April 2, sparking a sharp selloff and a notable spike in the VIX. This initial disruption, however, gave way to a broad recovery in equity markets as trade-related uncertainty receded and geopolitical tensions eased—most notably following a late-June ceasefire … Read more

Data are in… and May didn’t disappoint. The S&P 500 closed May up 6.2%, its best month since November 2023—and the strongest May showing since 1990. Cue the shoulder shrug from the Fed, but markets are clearly saying something. The big surprise last week? A stunning collapse in the trade deficit, pointing to a possible … Read more

Happy Cinco de Mayo! What a tumultuous month in the equity markets, marked by the biggest stock declines since the early days of the Covid pandemic, huge single-day surges and similar swings in other investments, such as U.S. Treasuries. Despite the violence of the daily shifts, the monthly changes in major indexes were muted, with … Read more